A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
